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MTFB Oscar Update: Winners Predicitons: Above the Line / Looking Forward to Cannes / Trailer for The Friend / Interviews and Profiles: The Seed of the Sacred Fig and Nickel Boys

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MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: WINNERS PREDICTIONS: ABOVE THE LINE




The difference two weeks can make.  Since the last posting of theses six "Above the Line" categories, the Karla Sofia Gascon implosion has done major damage to the Oscar chances of Emilia Perez and the 1-2-3 blitz from last weekend of Anora winning Best Picture from the Critics' Choice as well as the Producers' Guild and the directing trophy from the Directors' Guild has re-shaped the Oscar map.  Here's where we are as of this morning.  As always TTFF films are Bold and a film/performer's position from the last set of predictions is indicated in parentheses to the right.


BEST PICTURE




1) Anora (4)
2) Conclave (3)
3) A Complete Unknown (5)
4) The Brutalist (2)
5) Wicked (6)
6) Emilia Perez (1)
7) The Substance (7)
8) I'm Still Here (10)
9) Dune Part Two (9)
10) Nickel Boys (8)


BEST DIRECTION

1) Sean Baker/Anora (3)
2) Brady Corbet/The Brutalist (1)
3) James Mangold/A Complete Unknown (4)
4) Coralie Fargeat/The Substance (5)
5) Jacques Audiard/Emilia Perez (2)


BEST ACTRESS

1) Demi Moore/The Substance (1)
2) Fernanda Torres/I'm Still Here (3)
3) Mikey Madison/Anora (3)
4) Cynthia Erivo/Wicked (5)
5) Karla Sofia Gascon/Emilia Perez (4)


BEST ACTOR




1) Adrien Brody/The Brutali

MTFB Oscar Update: Predicting the Winners Part Four / Critics Choice and TFF / Director's Guild and Producer's Guild

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MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: PREDICTING THE WINNERS PART FOUR




Here's the last set of initial predictions for what will win at the Oscar ceremony on March 2nd.  I'll have fresh predictions for Best Picture, Direction and the Acting categories on Thursday.  As always, TFF films are in Bold.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN




1) Wicked
2) Conclave
3) Nosferatu
4) A Complete Unknown
5) Gladiator II


BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) The Substance
2) Wicked
3) Emilia Perez
4) A Different Man
5) Nosferatu  


BEST SOUND DESIGN

1) A Complete Unknown
2) Wicked
3) Dune Part Two
4) Emilia Perez
5) The Wild Robot


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS




1) Dune Part Two
2) Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
3) Wicked
4) Better Man
5) Alien: Romulus


Comment: Among these four categories, TFF's best shot at a win looks to be Conclave in costumes and even that seems fairly unlikely.  Maybe the tightest category of any is Sound.  A Complete Unknown, Wicked and Dune Part Two seem to be in dead heat.  It'll be interesting to see if that changes over the next couple of weeks when we re-visit these categories.


CRITICS CHOICE AND TFF

MTFB Oscar Update: A Look at Tight Races / ICYMI: The Producers Guild and TFF

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MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: A LOOK AT TIGHT RACES




In today's update I'm spotlighting the instances in major categories that are tight.

Best Picture:  It feels like seven films are safely locked: Conclave, Anora, Emilia Perez, The Brutalist, Wicked, A Complete Unknown and Dune Part Two.  The last three slots look like a fight between The Substance, A Real Pain, Nickel Boys and Sing Sing.  Also, All We Imagine as Light could sneak in with massive support from non-domestic members of the Academy.

I'm actually thinking that The Substance is nearly locked.  I won't be particularly surprised at any arrangement of Real Pain, Nickel Boys or Sing Sing in that last two slots.  I would be surprised if All We Imagine makes the list of ten.  I'd really like to see September 5 make it.  We'll see when I post the MTFB FINAL NOMINATION PREDICTIONS IN A SPECIAL POST ON WEDNESDAY.

Best Direction: Locks: Corbet, Baker, Bergen and Audiard.  Last spot: Mangold, Villenueve, Fargeat, Ross or Kapadia.  

Best Actress: Locks: Moore, Erivo, Madison and Gascon.  Last Spot: Torres, Jean-Baptiste, Jolie or Kidman.  Shocker: Winslet.

Best Actor: Locks: Fiennes, Brody, Chalamet.  Last two spots: Domingo, Stan (Apprentice), Craig, Grant.  Shocker: Eisenberg.

Best Supporting Actress: Locks: Locks: Saldana, Grande-Butera, Rossellini.  Last two spots: Barbaro, Curtis, Jones, Gomez, Qualley or Deadwyler.  The chicken bones are tending toward Curtis to grab one of these two remaining spots.  Shocker: Fanning.

Best Supporting Actor: Locks: Culkin, Norton, Borisov and Pearce.  Last spot: Strong, Washington, Maclin or Tucci.  Shocker: Magaro.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Locks: Conclave, Emilia Perez, A Complete Unknown.  Last two spots: Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, Dune Part Two, Wicked, Inside Out 2.  Shocker: Hit Man .

Best Original Screenplay: Locks: Anora, The Brutalist and A Real Pain.  Last two spots: The Substance, September 5, All We Imagine as Light or Hard Truths.  Shockers: Challengers or The Seed of the Sacred Fig.

Best Animated Feature: Locks: The Wild Robot, Flow and Inside Out 2.  Last two spots: Memoir of a Snail, Wallace and Gromet: Vengeance Most Fowl, Moana 2, Piece by Piece.  Shocker: Chicken for Linda.

Best International Film: Locks: Emilia Perez, The Seed of the Sacred Fig and I'm Still Here.  Last two spots: Vermiglio, The Girl with the Needle, Flow, Kneecap or Dahomey.  Shocker: 

Best Documentary Feature: Locks:  (probably): No Other Land, Sugar cane and Daughters.  Last two spots: Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat, Dahomey, Will & Harper, The Remarkable Life of Ibelin or Black Box.  Shocker: Union.


ICYMI: THE PRODUCERS GUILD AND TFF

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BAFTA and TFF #51 / MTFB Oscar Update-It's in Flux-Updating the Big Eight / Interviews and Profiles

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BAFTA AND TFF #51



First came the longlists and now we have the actual nominees from the British Academy of Film and Televisions Arts (BAFTA).  The Brits have nominated 14 films that played at TFF #51 for a total of 45 nominations.  Conclave and Emilia Perez had the most noms with a dozen and 11 respectively.  Here's the complete rundown of BAFTA nominations and TFF films:

Conclave (12): Best Film, Outstanding British Film, Direction, Actor (Fiennes), Supporting Actress (Rossellini), Casting, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Score and Costumes.

Emilia Perez (11): Best Film, Best Film Not in the English Language, Direction, Actress (Gascon), Supporting Actress (Saldana), Supporting Actress (Gomez), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Score and Makeup/Hair.

Anora (7): Best Film, Direction, Actress (Madison), Supporting Actor (Borisov), Original Screenplay, Casting and Editing.

The Apprentice (3): Best Actor (Stan), Supporting Actor (Strong) and Casting.

A Real Pain (2): Best Supporting Actor (Culkin) and Original Screenplay.

The Outrun (2): Outstanding British Film and Best Actress (Ronan).

All other films have a single nomination as follows:

Nickel Boys: Best Adapted Screenplay.
No Other Land: Best Documentary.
Will & Harper: Best Documentary.
The Seed of the Sacred Fig: Best Film Not in the English Language.
All We Imagine as Light: Best Film Not in the English Language.
Bird: Outstanding British Film.
Santosh: Outstanding Debut.
Better Man: Best Special Visual Effects.


The BAFTA Awards will be handed out on Feb. 16th.



MTFB OSCAR UPDATE-IT'S IN FLUX




It's all pretty messy now.  Oscar nominations are now set to be announced on Jan. 23rd.  Today I'm updating the nomination predictions for the Big Eight categories: Picture, Direction, all four acting categories and the two screenplay categories.  My plan at the moment is to focus on updating close races in Monday's post and do a Special Final Oscar Nom post on Wednesday the 22

MTFB Oscar Update: Shorts / The Precursors' Tale / Oscar Voters: Hear My Plea(s) Please / Interviews and Profiles

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MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SHORTS




For the first time I'm taking a stab at the most difficult Oscar categories to predict both in terms of nominations and ultimate winners.  These may or may not change prior to my final Oscar nomination predictions on Jan. 16th.  This year of the short listed shorts TFF had two films make those lists: A Swim Lesson in Documentary Shorts and  Beautiful Men in Animated Shorts.

Here's where I'm guessing the nominations will land on Jan. 19th:

ANIMATED SHORTS

1) Me
2) Maybe Elephants
3) Bottle George
4) Magic Candles
5)Wander to Wonder

Others: In the Shadow of the Cypress, The 21 and Yuck.


DOCUMENTARY SHORTS

1) Makayla's Voice: A Letter to the World
2) The Only Girl in the Orchestra
3) A Swim Lesson
4) Incident
5) Once Upon a Time in Ukraine

Others: The Quilters, Death by Numbers and Instruments of a Beating Heart.


LIVE ACTION SHORTS

1) The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
2) Dovecote
3) An Orange from Jaffa
4) Room Taken
5) The Masterpiece

Others: Crust, I Am Not a Robot and Clodagh.


THE PERCURSORS' TALE




A bunch of us that try to tell you what's going to happen when Oscar nominations and winners are announced take a look at various "precursor awards".  It's a way to try to divine what the film industry is thinking as we move closer to the nomination reveal and then the Oscar ceremony itself.

And there are, if you choose to look at them, a ton of precursors.  My buddy Mark Johnson of The Awards Alchemist (housed at Erik Anderson's Awards Watch) annually puts together what he refers to as the Big Board of Precursors You can find its current status here.  Mark's Awards Alchemist predictions are linked here.

Next Best Picture's Matt Neglia does a super

MTFB Oscar Update: Screenplays and More / MTFB Predicted Nomination Totals / SAG and DGA Nominations and TFF / IndieWire's 50+ Most Anticipated and TFF

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 MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SCREENPLAYS AND MORE


Before we get to this post's Oscar nomination predictions, The Academy last night extended the nomination voting window by two days and moved the announcement of nominees to Sunday, January 19th due to the L.A. fires.  Now, onto the predictions which seem sort of a small consideration in light of what's going on in Southern California.

Here are updated nomination predictions for the Screenplay categories as well as for Best Costume Design, Makeup/Hair and Visual Effects. These categories were last predicted on Dec. 26th.  A film's previous rank appears to the right in parentheses. TFF #51 films are in Bold.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Conclave (1)
2) Emilia Perez (2)
3) Sing Sing (3)
4) Nickel Boys (4)
5) Dune Part Two (5)

Others: A Complete Unknown, Wicked and The Room Next Door.


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY




1) Anora (1)
2) The Brutalist (2)
3) A Real Pain (3)
4) The Substance (4)
5) September 5 (5)

Others: Hard Truths, All We Imagine as Light and The Seed of the Sacred Fig.


BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1) Wicked (1)
2) Dune Part Two (2)
3) Gladiator II (4)
4) Maria (3)
5) Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (5)

Others: Nosferatu, Conclave and Blitz.


BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) The Substance (1)
2) Wicked (2)
3) Dune Part Two (3)
4) Nosferatu (4)
5) A Different Man (5)

Others: Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Emilia Perez, The Apprentice.


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Golden Globe Winners and TFF / MTFB Oscar Update: Supporting Acting and More / BAFTA Longlists and TFF / National Society of Film Critics and TFF

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 GOLDEN GLOBE WINNERS AND TFF




The Golden Globe Awards for Film and Television were handed out last night and here are your winners with TFF films/performers in Bold.

Best Picture (Drama): The Brutalist
Best Picture (Musical or Comedy): Emilia Perez
Best Director: Brady Corbet/The Brutalist
Best Actress (Drama): Fernanda Torres/I'm Still Here
Best Actor (Drama): Adrien Brody/The Brutalist
Best Actress (Musical or Comedy): Demi Moore/The Substance
Best Actor (Musical or Comedy): Sebastian Stan/A Different Man
Best Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez
Best Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain
Best Screenplay: Conclave
Best Animated Film: Flow
Best Non-English Film: Emilia Perez
Best Original Score: Challengers
Best Original Song: El Mal/Emilia Perez
Cinematic and Box Office Achievement: Wicked


MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SUPPORTING ACTING AND MORE




I'm updating the Supporting Acting categories today as well as Original Score, Original Song And Sound. These categories were last updated on Dec. 23rd.  An actor's/film's previous position is indicated in (parentheses).  TFF #51 films are in Bold. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez (1)
2) Ariana Grande-Butera/Wicked (2)
3) Isabella Rossellini/Conclave (3)
4) Felicity Jones/The Brutalist (4)
5) Danielle Deadwyler/The Piano Lesson (5)

Others: Selena Gomez/Emilia Perez, Margaret Qualley/The Substance and Aunjanue Eillis-Taylor/Nickel Boys.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 

MTFB Oscar Update: Lead Acting and More / THR's Most Anticipated for 2025 / Interviews and Profiles

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 MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: LEAD ACTING AND MORE




I'm updating the Lead Acting categories today as well as Cinematography, Editing and Production Design.  These categories were last updated on Dec. 19th.  An actor's/film's previous position is indicated in (parentheses).  TFF #51 films are in Bold. 


BEST ACTRESS




1) Mikey Madison/Anora (1)
2) Angelina Jolie/Maria (4)
3) Karla Sofia Gascon/Emilia Perez (3)
4) Cynthia Erivo/Wicked (2)
5) Demi Moore/The Substance (5)

Others: Marianne Jean-Baptiste/Hard Truths, Nicole Kidman/Babygirl and Fernanda Torres/I'm Still Here.


BEST ACTOR

1)  Adrien Brody/The Brutalist (2)
2) Ralph Fiennes/Conclave (1)
3) Timothee Chalamet/A Complete Unknown (3)
4) Colman Domingo/Sing Sing (4)
5) Daniel Craig/Queer (5)

Others: Sebastian Stan/The Apprentice, Jesse Eisenberg/A Real Pain and Sebastian Stan/A Different Man.


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY




1) The Brutalist (2)
2) Maria (3)
3) Dune Part Two (1)
4) Nickel Boys (4)
5) Nosferatu (5)

Others: Conclave, Wicked Part 1 and The Girl with a Needle.

BEST EDITING

MTFB Oscar Update: Best Picture and More / Gold Derby Best Picture Breakdown and TFF / Interviews and Profiles

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 MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: BEST PICTURE AND MORE




Here are updated nomination predictions for the Best Picture Direction, International, Animated and Documentary Features.  These categories were last predicted on Dec. 16th.  A film's previous rank appears to the right of their names in parentheses.  TFF #51 actors/films are in Bold. 


BEST PICTURE




1) Conclave  (2)
2) Anora (1)
3) Emilia Perez (5)
4) The Brutalist (4)
5) Wicked Part 1 (3)
6) Dune Part Two (6)
7) A Complete Unknown (8)
8) Sing Sing (9)
9) A Real Pain (7)
10) Nickel Boys (10)

Others: The Substance, September 5 and Gladiator II.

Comment: Conclave moves to the top spot for the first time.  Sensing some momentum.  Wicked's surge driven by its release and huge success seems to have paled a bit over the last two weeks.


BEST DIRECTION

1) Brady Corbet/The Brutalist (1)
2) Sean Baker/Anora (2)
3) Edward Berger/Conclave (3)
4) Jacques Audiard/Emilia Perez (4)
5) RaMell Ross/Nickel Boys (5)

Others: Jon M. Chu/Wicked, Coralie Fargeat/The Substance and Denis Villenueve/Dune Part Two.


BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE



MTFB Oscar Update: Screenplays and More / The MTFB Nomination Totals / Interviews and Profiles: Eisenberg, Baker and Gracey

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MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SCREENPLAYS AND MORE




Here are updated nomination predictions for the Screenplay categories as well as for Best Costume Design, Makeup/Hair and Visual Effects. These categories were last predicted on Dec. 12th.  A film's previous rank appears to the right in parentheses. TFF #51 films are in Bold.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY




1) Conclave (1)
2) Emilia Perez (2)
3) Sing Sing (3)
4) Nickel Boys (4)
5) Dune Part Two (5)

Others: A Complete Unknown, The Room Next Door and Wicked Part One.


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Anora (1)
2) The Brutalist (3)
3) A Real Pain (2)
4) The Substance (5)
5) September 5 (4)

Others: Hard Truths, All We Imagine as Light and The Seed of the Sacred Fig.


BEST COSTUMES




1) Wicked Part One (1)
2) Dune Part Two (2)
3) Maria (4)
4) Gladiator II (3)
5) Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice (-)

Others: Nosferatu, Conclave and A Complete Unknown.


BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) The Substance (2)
2) Wicked Part One (3)
3) Dune Part Two (1)
4) Nosferatu (4)
5) A Different Man (-0

Others: Emilia Perez, Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice and Maria.
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