MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: A LOOK AT TIGHT RACES
In today's update I'm spotlighting the instances in major categories that are tight.
Best Picture: It feels like seven films are safely locked: Conclave, Anora, Emilia Perez, The Brutalist, Wicked, A Complete Unknown and Dune Part Two. The last three slots look like a fight between The Substance, A Real Pain, Nickel Boys and Sing Sing. Also, All We Imagine as Light could sneak in with massive support from non-domestic members of the Academy.
I'm actually thinking that The Substance is nearly locked. I won't be particularly surprised at any arrangement of Real Pain, Nickel Boys or Sing Sing in that last two slots. I would be surprised if All We Imagine makes the list of ten. I'd really like to see September 5 make it. We'll see when I post the MTFB FINAL NOMINATION PREDICTIONS IN A SPECIAL POST ON WEDNESDAY.
Best Direction: Locks: Corbet, Baker, Bergen and Audiard. Last spot: Mangold, Villenueve, Fargeat, Ross or Kapadia.
Best Actress: Locks: Moore, Erivo, Madison and Gascon. Last Spot: Torres, Jean-Baptiste, Jolie or Kidman. Shocker: Winslet.
Best Actor: Locks: Fiennes, Brody, Chalamet. Last two spots: Domingo, Stan (Apprentice), Craig, Grant. Shocker: Eisenberg.
Best Supporting Actress: Locks: Locks: Saldana, Grande-Butera, Rossellini. Last two spots: Barbaro, Curtis, Jones, Gomez, Qualley or Deadwyler. The chicken bones are tending toward Curtis to grab one of these two remaining spots. Shocker: Fanning.
Best Supporting Actor: Locks: Culkin, Norton, Borisov and Pearce. Last spot: Strong, Washington, Maclin or Tucci. Shocker: Magaro.
Best Adapted Screenplay: Locks: Conclave, Emilia Perez, A Complete Unknown. Last two spots: Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, Dune Part Two, Wicked, Inside Out 2. Shocker: Hit Man .
Best Original Screenplay: Locks: Anora, The Brutalist and A Real Pain. Last two spots: The Substance, September 5, All We Imagine as Light or Hard Truths. Shockers: Challengers or The Seed of the Sacred Fig.
Best Animated Feature: Locks: The Wild Robot, Flow and Inside Out 2. Last two spots: Memoir of a Snail, Wallace and Gromet: Vengeance Most Fowl, Moana 2, Piece by Piece. Shocker: Chicken for Linda.
Best International Film: Locks: Emilia Perez, The Seed of the Sacred Fig and I'm Still Here. Last two spots: Vermiglio, The Girl with the Needle, Flow, Kneecap or Dahomey. Shocker:
Best Documentary Feature: Locks: (probably): No Other Land, Sugar cane and Daughters. Last two spots: Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat, Dahomey, Will & Harper, The Remarkable Life of Ibelin or Black Box. Shocker: Union.
ICYMI: THE PRODUCERS GUILD AND TFF
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